How Tom Daschle Might Kill Conservatism. If Democrats take the White House and pass a big-government healthcare plan, that's it. Game over. Government will dominate the economy like it does in Europe. Conservatives will spend the rest of their lives trying to turn things around and they will fail. 2:49 PM; US News.
Who Will Take Over Citi? Nothing's unthinkable in this market, not even the idea that you can tie two rocks together and hope that they float. 12:08 PM; Felix Salmon.
A week of living perilously. Panic seized markets this week. Just one asset class is deemed safe: the liabilities of highly-rated governments. 11:53 AM; Financial Times.
End of the beginning? The failure of Citigroup, which looks increasingly likely to happen in the near future, would mark the end of the beginning of the financial crisis. Until now, the prevailing view has been that the crisis and recession will pass in a year or so, after which things will go back, more or less, to the way they were, with a few less financial institutions, and a bit more regulation. A Citigroup failure would put paid to that idea. 9:21 AM; Crooked Timber.
Time for the Government to Buy Citigroup. No real point to merging it into JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America. And it is definitely too big to fail. 9:21 AM; Brad DeLong.
The Lame-Duck Economy. How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot. Consider how much darker the economic picture has grown since the failure of Lehman Brothers, which took place just over two months ago. And the pace of deterioration seems to be accelerating. 5:13 AM; Paul Krugman.
Mukasey collapses during speech. Attorney General Michael Mukasey collapsed during a speech Thursday night and was being taken to a hospital. 11/20/2008; Newsweek.
Don't panic about the stock market. Panic about the credit markets instead. Interest rate on 3-month Treasuries at 0.02%; interest rate on high-yield (junk) bonds over 20%. 11/20/2008; Paul Krugman.
Keynes to FDR, February 1, 1938. Because a number of people have asked, and the relevant section -- the start of the letter -- doesn't seem to be on the Internets elsewhere, I provide here the opening of Keynes's letter to Roosevelt, with some interpolation/translation and historical detail. 11/20/2008; The Edge of the West.
Worst of all possible bailouts? So the plan is to take money aimed at giving the Big Three a fighting chance to compete in a world where climate change and declining fossil fuel resources are immense challenges, and use it just to keep G.M., Ford and Chrysler from declaring imminent bankruptcy. If ever the phrase "bail out" was appropriate, in the sense of futilely bailing water out of a doomed sinking ship, this would be the case. 11/20/2008; How the World Works.
A long-term squeeze on Wall Street wealth. Wall Street is clearly going to cut bonuses this year, and next year does not look promising either. But financial industry types have not given up the hope of an eventual return to a system based on taking 50 per cent of revenues for the annual bonus pool. 11/20/2008; John Gapper.
Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day. Steve Hanke is mainly known in the world of international economics for his conviction that dollarization is the cure for all ills. (How's that working out, Steve?) But he's come up with something really rather fabulous for the Cato Institute: the Hanke Hyperinflation Index for Zimbabwe, which puts that country's inflation at 89.7 Sextillion Percent. 11/20/2008; Market Movers.
Associated Press to cut 10 pct jobs in '09: sources. The Associated Press plans to cut up to 10 percent of its workforce in 2009, according to sources at the news service, as it copes with tough financial times and ailing member newspapers. 11/20/2008; Reuters.
Global stocks hit 5-1/2 year lows. A rout in Asia pushed world stocks to their lowest in 5- years on Thursday, while oil fell to below $53 a barrel and safe havens such as the yen gained as economic data indicated a global recession could get even uglier. 11/20/2008; Reuters.
Weak Japan exports pile on economic gloom. Japan's exports to Asia fell in October for the first time since 2002, showing that the fallout from the credit crisis has spread to neighbors such as China and adding momentum to investors' flight to the safety of cash. 11/20/2008; Reuters.
My Nine Years Spinning Wheels at GM. With gasoline slipping toward $2 per gallon, commitment to what the industry touted as "nothing less than the re-invention of the automobile" (or in English "copying the Japanese") seems to be slipping. Ford has restarted large pickup production. Even Toyota, which apparently has been "copying the Americans" for too long, is restarting truck production. 11/20/2008; Daily Beast.
Rep. Frank Wants Bailout Shared With Automakers. Rep. Barney Frank has drafted legislation extending the $700 billion rescue program to Detroit's Big Three automakers. The Massachusetts Democrat talks with Steve Inskeep about the legislation. 11/19/2008; NPR.
Everyone went down to Georgia. Democrats might find their 60th Senate seat in Georgia, but Saxby Chambliss and the GOP are putting up a fight. 11/19/2008; Salon.
Detroit Chiefs Back on Hill for a Second Day. The chief executives of the three Detroit automakers were back on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, appealing this time to the House of Representatives to approve $25 billion in bailout funds to stave off industry collapse. 11/19/2008; NYT.
McCain wins Missouri. Kind of. Two weeks later. Obama is still the prez, of course... The Missouri Secretary of State's office said Tuesday night the Arizona Republican led President-elect Barack Obama by 4,355 votes out of 2,923,496 cast. 11/19/2008; Kansas City Star.
Opening seals, sorting ballots: Minnesota's Senate recount begins. The contentious fight for a U.S. Senate seat between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken inched into the recount phase today as election workers across Minnesota started retabulating more than 2.9 million ballots -- one by one. 11/19/2008; Star Tribune.
Big Three CEOs Flew Private Jets to Plead for Public Funds. All three CEOs -- Rick Wagoner of GM, Alan Mulally of Ford, and Robert Nardelli of Chrysler -- exercised their perks Tuesday by flying in corporate jets to DC. 11/19/2008; ABC.
Dollars Per Vote: The Best Buys Of The Race. Obama won the award for most dollars spent per vote -- doling out $14.85 in Nevada -- with McCain close behind at $13.95 in the same state. Obama also topped the $10-per-vote mark in Virginia and New Hampshire, while John McCain's next-highest outlays came in New Mexico, at $9.25 per voter, and Pennsylvania, at $8.51. 11/19/2008; National Journal.
A Sea of Unwanted Imports. Gleaming new Mercedes cars roll one by one out of a huge container ship here and onto a pier. Ordinarily the cars would be loaded on trucks within hours, destined for dealerships around the country. But these are not ordinary times. 11/19/2008; NYT.
Begich defeats Stevens in Senate race. The Democratic Anchorage mayor widened his lead to 3,724 votes in today's counting of absentee and questioned ballots. The only votes left to count are approximately 2,500 special absentees from people living outside the U.S. or in remote parts of Alaska with no polling place. 11/18/2008; Anchorage Daily News.
Obama Babies: It's Change You Can Conceive In. Barack Obama, the son of politically progressive parents, was born Aug. 4, 1961 -- almost nine months to the day after John F. Kennedy was elected to the White House. Is it possible Obama was conceived on that historic night? 11/15/2008; Newsweek.
A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals. Hillary Clinton might have beaten John McCain by more than Barack Obama did. She also might have lost to him. I doubt you'll find too many Democrats who would be willing to take that trade. 11/13/2008; FiveThirtyEight.
Stevens Pollster: Race Is Over, Begich Will Win. Alaska-based GOP pollster David Dittman, who worked for Sen. Ted Stevens during this year's primary race, believes Democratic challenger Mark Begich is all but certain to expand his current razor-thin lead and snatch the seat. 11/13/2008; HuffPost.
Few Will Miss Campaign News. The 2008 campaign set records for interest and will long be remembered (in fact, 23% of Americans are saving a post-election newspaper), but fully 82% of Americans will have no problem taking election news out of their lives. 11/13/2008; Pew Research.
Dear Mr. President-elect, please take me off your spam list. I have to admit that in the six days between the election and yesterday morning, I even came to miss my near-daily missives from each of you, updating me, flattering me, promising me great things and then shaking me down, just as a very kind, attentive, loving parent might do if, say, you owed him a lot of money. 11/12/2008; Slate.
Prop 8 Myths. If nobody over the age of 65 had voted, Prop 8 would have failed by a point or two. 11/12/2008; FiveThirtyEight.
Why the rich voted for Obama against their own economic interest. It's clear that the nation's mass affluent -- Steve the lawyer, Colby the financial services executive, Ari the highly paid media big shot -- are trending Democratic, especially on the coasts. Indeed, Bushenfreude is not necessarily a nationwide phenomenon. As Andrew Gelman notes in the book Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State, the rich in poor states are likely to stick with the Republicans. 11/10/2008; Slate.
This Math Whiz Called It for Obama Months Ago. In an election season of unlikely outcomes, Mr. Silver, 30, is perhaps the most unlikely media star to emerge. A baseball statistician who began analyzing political polls only last year, he introduced his site, FiveThirtyEight.com, in March, where he used his own formula to predict federal and state results and run Election Day possibilities based on a host of factors. 11/10/2008; NYT.
Palin reflects on her run. Gov. Sarah Palin blames the Bush administration for the failure of the McCain-Palin ticket, thinks people need to move on from the so-called "Troopergate" controversy and has no regrets about state per diem for time spent at her home in Wasilla or state-funded travel for her children. 11/10/2008; Anchorage Daily News.
How Obama Won. Obama told aides, "I'm in this to win, I want to win, and I think we will win. But I'm also going to emerge intact. I'm going to be Barack Obama and not some parody." 11/9/2008; New Yorker.
Big City Barack. One nugget from Pew Research that I'd missed earlier: Barack Obama performed 9 points better than John Kerry among urban whites. 11/9/2008; FiveThirtyEight.
That huge voter turnout? Didn't happen. Despite widespread predictions of record turnout in this year's presidential election, roughly the same portion of eligible voters cast ballots in 2008 as in 2004. 11/9/2008; Politico.
The Nation: The Transformation. How did Barack Obama win over white, blue-collar Levittown, Pa.? A writer returns after seven months. 11/8/2008; NYT.
McCain Campaign Autopsy. Chief strategist Steve Schmidt talks about the moment -- back in September -- when he knew McCain was doomed. Plus, his surprising view on gay marriage, and more scoop on leaks. 11/8/2008; Ana Marie Cox.
1.6 million ballots are uncounted in California. In L.A. County, an estimated 566,000 votes have yet to be tallied. In Orange County, about 239,000 await counting. All must be counted by Dec. 2. 11/8/2008; LA Times.
Most Minn. Senate 'undervotes' are from Obama turf. An Associated Press analysis of votes in the tight, still-to-be decided race for a U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota shows that most ballots lacking a recorded choice in the election were cast in counties won by Democrat Barack Obama. 11/8/2008; AP.
GOP maintains grip on South, but at what cost? Tuesday's elections leave little doubt that the Republicans' Nixon-era strategy to win over white Southerners has been a resounding success. But have they lost the rest of the country along the way? 11/8/2008; AP.
The Final Days. Obama was leading in the polls, even in red states like Virginia. But McCain almost seemed to glory in being the underdog. 11/8/2008; Newsweek.
Breaking News: Obama wins electoral vote in Nebraska. The Democratic presidential candidate claimed an electoral vote in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District -- the first time in more than four decades a Democrat won any of Nebraska's electoral votes. 11/7/2008; Omaha World-Herald.
From coast to coast, Democrats rule the day. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's historic and convincing victory in the race for the White House wasn't the only good news for Democrats on Tuesday. 11/7/2008; CNN.
The Great Debates. McCain bridled at reducing his opinions to sound bites. Obama prepped as if he were taking the bar exam -- nothing was left to chance. 11/7/2008; Newsweek.
What Remains Uncalled. In the Senate, three races remain undecided, and the tally stands at 57-40, in favor of the Democrats, if you include Joe Lieberman. 11/6/2008; FiveThirtyEight.
Franken's deficit: 236 votes. Just as Secretary of State Mark Ritchie was explaining to reporters the recount process in one of the narrowest elections in Minnesota history, an aide rushed in with news: Pine County's Partridge Township had revised its vote total upward -- another 100 votes for Democratic candidate Al Franken, putting him within .011 percentage points of Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman. 11/6/2008; Star Tribune.
Obama's former pastor says media exploited him. Barack Obama's former pastor complained Thursday that the media used him as a "weapon of mass destruction" in an attempt to derail Obama's campaign for the presidency. 11/6/2008; AP.
Nine House, Senate races still undecided. Democrats swept into the White House on Tuesday and expanded their majorities in Congress, but for candidates in nine House and Senate races where ballots are still being counted, the election is far from over. 11/6/2008; USA Today.
Hispanic vote grows, shifts to Democrats. Hispanic voters surged this week and swung their support to the Democratic Party, helping flip four states to winner Barack Obama. 11/6/2008; USA Today.
No record turnout in U.S. election. The anticipated record turnout of voters in Tuesday's U.S. election did not materialize, with the percentage of eligible Americans casting ballots staying virtually the same as 2004, a report said on Thursday. 11/6/2008; Reuters.
The Youth Vote: Myths and Realities. The increase in youth turnout matches the increase in overall turnout, but young adults did not made up a much greater proportion of the voting public. 11/6/2008; TAPPED.
Obama Aides Tamp Down Expectations. Mr. Obama's advisers said they were startled, if gratified, by the jubilation that greeted the news of Mr. Obama's victory in much of the United States and abroad. But while the energy of his supporters could be a tremendous political asset as Mr. Obama works to enact his agenda after taking office in January, his aides said they were looking to temper hopes that he would be able to solve the nation's problems or fully reverse Bush administration policies quickly and easily, especially given the prospect of a deep and long-lasting recession. 11/6/2008; NYT.
Rove Says New Voters Key to Obama Victory. Messrs. Plouffe and Axelrod understood that over the last 28 years only 11 of 20 eligible Americans on average cast a presidential ballot. They focused on registering and motivating the other nine who don't usually vote. 11/6/2008; Political Wire.
Obama Seeks Republicans for Cabinet. According to the Financial Times, senior Obama campaign officials said the President-elect will "appoint at least two Republicans to senior cabinet positions." In addition, the article says Obama will "move quickly on senior economic posts - probably within the next 48 hours." 11/6/2008; Political Wire.
Biden See Mondale as Model. Mondale, who served under President Jimmy Carter in the 1970s, was consulted on almost every appointment and had access to the same documents as the president. During his tenure, Mondale said he served as an extension of the presidency. 11/6/2008; Political Wire.
"We'll See," Palin Says Of 2012. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin has returned to her home state of Alaska, where she was greeted by dozens of supporters encouraging her to run for president in four years. 11/6/2008; CBS.
Can Palin resurrect the GOP? Does she want to? Is Sarah Palin the answer for defeated Republicans? After a historic rebuke at the polls, the Republican Party is staggering into an uncertain tomorrow with the White House and Congress in Democratic hands, no certain leader in sight and its membership divided over what it means to be a Republican. 11/6/2008; AP.
The New First Family. Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7, will be the White House's youngest residents in decades as they prepare to leave the comforts of Chicago's South Side and Saturday afternoons at the California Pizza Kitchen for Washington D.C. 11/6/2008; Mark Halperin.
Michelle's Style. In short, First Lady Obama will be the picture of the modern woman who has it all: an Ivy-League-educated professional, doting mother and adored wife who pulls it all off in a cigar-rolled jersey tunic and palazzo pants. 11/6/2008; Mark Halperin.
Transition is a test in itself. The 11 weeks between now and inauguration will test the functioning of government in crisis at home and abroad. 11/6/2008; Politico.
Who will be plucked from the bench? Politico staff muses on who Obama might pick for state and defense secretaries, attorney general and EPA chief. 11/6/2008; Politico.
Secretary of State post looms large. It’s the cabinet’s top prize: an office, fourth in line in presidential succession and first held by Thomas Jefferson. 11/6/2008; Politico.
GOP looks to regroup after Dems' triumph. The Republican Party faces a long list of problems with no clear national leader and an identity crisis that will play out during a period of good will for the first African-American elected president. 11/6/2008; CNN.
Obama narrowed the ‘God Gap' Steve Waldman breaks down Obama's reclamation of Christian voters. 11/6/2008; Revolution in Jesusl.
Bush to Talk Transition Thursday. The President will make a statement on Obama's move into the White House at 11:10 am ET after meeting with his Cabinet. 11/6/2008; Mark Halperin.
You Wanted Change? It's Time To Help. Civic improvements are accomplished by individuals, not primarily in a "top down" manner. Why not ask -- or at least ponder -- what we can do to help? 11/6/2008; NPR.
Blagojevich Looking to Appoint Obama Senate Replacement by Christmas. The Illinois Governor says he doesn't have a favorite candidate for the job and that members of his senior staff would help to vet those interested. Hopes to name someone by the end of December but doesn't make any promises. 11/6/2008; Mark Halperin.
"This Is Not a Professional Choice. This Is a Personal Choice" Rep. Rham Emanuel tells reporters he's still mulling the White House chief of staff position, says he took months to decide to run for Congress. "When I was in the White House I didn't have children. I do know something about the White House and I have a family now." 11/6/2008; Mark Halperin.
Coleman declares win, recount looms. Coleman declared himself the winner of Tuesday's election but Franken said he would let the recount play out, hoping it would erase the incumbent's 475-vote lead out of nearly 2.9 million ballots. 11/6/2008; MPR.
You won, now fight. Reid meets with Lieberman. Pelosi meets with the Big Three. Everyone else jockeys for position. 11/6/2008; Politico.
Obama unoffical winner in North Carolina. Democrat Barack Obama is the unofficial winner in North Carolina, but the victory over Sen. John McCain won't be sealed until provisional ballots are counted and certified next month. Unofficial returns show Obama ahead by 13,746 votes. 11/5/2008; News & Observer.
Chicago Hitches Wagon to Its Newest Star. Tuesday's victory celebration in Grant Park let Chicago strut its stuff to the world: lakefront parks, a dramatic skyline, throngs of joyful -- and well-organized -- citizens. 11/5/2008; NYT.
Stumper : The Best of NEWSWEEK's Top-Secret Election Project, Vol. I. Every four years, NEWSWEEK detaches a team of reporters to follow the presidential candidates from announcement speech to Election Day. The deal is simple. The "Project" staffers won't report what they learn until Nov. 5; in exchange, the campaigns give us unprecedented behind-the-scenes access. The information is so hush-hush, in fact, that no one who works on the weekly magazine--including yours truly--is permitted to read the finished product until a winner is officially declared. Which meant I was up until 4:00 a.m., reading away. 11/5/2008; Newsweek.
Palin Says Goodbye. The Republican vice-presidential nominee says she has no time for recriminations, or pettiness, as she returns to Alaska. 11/5/2008; NYT.
Gallup Daily: Obama Favorability. On Oct. 31, Gallup began tracking daily the percentage of Americans who have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama. 11/5/2008; Gallup.
Soruces: McCain aide fired for 'trashing' staff. Randy Scheunemann, a senior foreign policy adviser to John Mccain, was fired from the Arizona senator's campaign last week for what one aide called "trashing" the campaign staff, three senior McCain advisers tell CNN. 11/5/2008; CNN.
The Man in the Arena. Back in 2000, after his unexpected triumph in New Hampshire, Tucker Carlson memorably described McCain as the "dog who caught the car." 11/5/2008; Stephen Hayes.
Highlights: Newsweek's Special Election Project. As in the previous editions, "How He Did It, 2008" is an inside, behind-the-scenes account of the presidential election produced by a special team of reporters working for more than a year on an embargoed basis and detached from the weekly magazine and Newsweek.com. Everything the project team learns is kept confidential until the day after the polls close. 11/5/2008; Newsweek.
Washington Post to Print Commemorative Edition of Today's Paper. he Post will produce 150,000 copies of a commemorative edition of today's paper, which will be available at select local retailers this afternoon. The newspapers, which will cost $1.50 each, will be available at some CVS, Giant Food, Harris Teeter, Safeway, Shoppers Food and 7-11 locations. 11/5/2008; Washington Post.
Obama considers stars for Cabinet. President-elect Barack Obama is strongly considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Environmental Protection Agency, a Cabinet post, Democratic officials told Politico. 11/5/2008; Politico.
Franken not conceding. Minnesota Senate challenger Al Franken is not conceding his race against incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman. The two men are separated by less than 600 votes with 100 percent of the precincts reporting. The Associated Press called the race for Coleman Wednesday morning. 11/5/2008; CNN.
Post-Mortem Interview with Dan Pfeiffer, communications director for Barack Obama. "Our first day of this campaign, February 10th, 2007, there were 500 reporters credentialed for an announcement and we’ve been under tremendous scrutiny every day since." 11/5/2008; The Daily Beast.
Obama versus Kerry and Gore. Obama did remarkably better in some key battleground states. 11/5/2008; Salon.
Pennsylvania Head Fake? A Political Wire reader suggests Sen. Barack Obama's campaign tricked Sen. John McCain into competing in Pennsylvania. 11/5/2008; Political Wire.
Catholics Turned to the Democrat. The swing in the Catholic vote may be one of the more significant political developments. 11/5/2008; NYT.
Senate Races Hang in Balance; Democrats Gain. Ted Stevens of Alaska had a narrow lead, while the race in Minnesota appeared to be headed for a recount. 11/5/2008; NYT.
Debate: Did Obama Realign Politics? Or Just Expand The Base? Geographically, Obama and the Democrats picked up a lot of suburban white collar counties in the Midwest and West... and lost ground in the South, doing worse than Kerry, Gore and Clinton. 11/5/2008; Atlantic.
AP Calls, Then Uncalls Minn. Senate Race for Coleman. The Associated Press flip-flopped in its call of the tight race in Minnesota between Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and Democrat Al Franken. The wire service initially declared Coleman the winner, but then pulled back its decision and noted that Coleman's current lead is small enough to set off a state-wide recount. 11/5/2008; The Hill.
Lieberman: Put Partisanship Aside. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) urged Washington to "put partisan considerations aside" today as he congratulated Obama on his victory last night. Lieberman is widely rumored to be on the hook for his coveted Homeland Security Committee chairmanship after backing McCain. 11/5/2008; The Hill.
Obama to Begin Intelligence Briefings Thursday. Top intelligence officials are set to begin highly classified 45-minute to an hour briefings to ensure he has the most critical overnight information needed by a U.S. president. Biden will also begin to get his own briefings this week. 11/5/2008; Mark Halperin.
Races Yet To Be Called. Several key races remain tightly contested. 11/5/2008; Daily Kos.
Recount likely in Minnesota U.S. Senate race. The Minnesota secretary of state's office said Wednesday a recount will probably be held in the state's neck-and-neck U.S. Senate race. 11/5/2008; CNN.
Obama, The Supreme Court And DOJ. CBS News chief legal analyst Andrew Cohen previews president-elect Barack Obama's impact on the Dept. of Justice and Supreme Court. 11/5/2008; CBS.
Prop. 8 wins. The second-most symbolically important vote yesterday was in California, where they banned same-sex marriage yesterday. 11/5/2008; Ben Smith.
The First Presidential Decision. Obama offers Rahm Emanuel Chief Of Staff: Emanuel, a knowledgeable source tells ABC News, has not yet given his answer. The sharp-tongued, sharp-elbowed, keenly intelligent veteran of the Clinton White House is said to have ambitions to some day be Speaker of the House. 11/5/2008; Andrew Sullivan.
Rice: 'proud' of Obama's victory. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Wednesday that the Department of State "will do everything we can" to ensure a smooth transition to President-elect Barack Obama. 11/5/2008; CNN.
Palin faces questions on return to Alaska. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska, returns home today facing many questions, the Anchorage Daily News writes: Will she try to repair her old relationships, or continue as the warrior cheered by a national conservative base? 11/5/2008; USA Today.
Key races still too close to call. Several key races are still undecided Wednesday as ballots continue to be counted. In the Presidential race, North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri all show Obama and McCain within one percentage point of each other. 11/5/2008; CNN.